When to cash out on Crash

Crash is the simplest-looking game in the lineup, and the most psychologically loaded. A curve ticks up, and at some point it busts. You choose when to bail. That’s it.

But the distribution behind that curve isn’t intuitive, and most losses come from misreading it. This post is a plain-language walkthrough of the math, plus three cashout heuristics you can test in the simulator.

The distribution

On a 99% RTP Crash game, the probability the bust point exceeds x is roughly 0.99 / x. That means about half of all rounds bust before 2×, and one round in a hundred exceeds 100×.

Every round is independent. Previous results tell you nothing about the next. The “law of averages” doesn’t apply to finite samples — it applies at infinity.

Three heuristics worth testing

1. Flat 2×. Cash out automatically at 2×. Long-run EV is identical to any other target on a fair game, but variance is bounded — you’ll see ~49.5% hit rate.

2. Martingale. Double after every loss. Mathematically attractive, psychologically lethal. One cold streak empties the bankroll.

3. Two-tier. Split the bet — cash out half at 1.5×, let the rest ride to 10×+. Most rounds break even; the occasional hit carries the month.

What not to do

Don’t chase. Don’t believe the graph is “due.” Don’t treat auto-cashout as a prediction — it’s just a commitment device.